Coldwell Banker Premier Realty

Inventory Continues to Decline, Sale Prices are on the Increase


Recent price pressures have yet to manifest in Case-Shiller Numbers
Posted: May 29, 2012 by John McClelland

Today Standard & Poor's released the Case-Shiller home price index numbers. Recall that these tabulations end March 2012, a substantial lag. As I write this, there are just over 4,000 single family homes on the market that you can go buy today. That is just over one month of supply and is not being replenished quick enough. Further, when you slice up the inventory to what you might actually be targeting, homebuying this summer became much more challenging.

We have a price per-square-foot index for the Las Vegas Valley which is segmented by quartiles of home size ranges. In the past two months (March,April) we have observed price increases in all but the 950 - 1500 square foot range (some of these are older or are becoming functionally obsolete. This has yet to manifest in the Case-Shiller figures and have just recently started to show up in the FNC, Inc index. So, as you read articles regarding slipping home sale prices as measured by Case-Shiller, know that things have changed materially in the last two months.


Source: Standard & Poor's.


Source: GLVAR, Coldwell Banker Premier Realty.

Finally, investors from retirees looking for extra income, all the way to hedge funds and large private equity groups, are voting on their expectation of future values with cash. We believe up to half of the purchases in the Las Vegas market are investors. Another view of expectations is given by the forward curves developed by contracts traded on the CME which are derived from the Case-Shiller index.

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